Researchers are beginning to document early economic fallout from heightened federal immigration enforcement in Minnesota, including Operation Metro Surge. University of Minnesota professor Ryan Allen, who studies immigration and labor markets, said the first wave of data shows meaningful disruption across several key industries.
Minnesota had an estimated 130,000 undocumented immigrants in 2024 and more than 70% were employed — a higher labor‑force participation rate than native‑born workers. Many fill essential roles in construction, agriculture, meat processing, dairies, hospitality and other service sectors. When enforcement activity increases, Allen said, both workers and consumers pull back.
“So far, what I’ve seen from that research is a really considerable economic impact on the order of magnitude of millions of dollars of tax revenues lost and millions of dollars of business revenues lost,” he said.
Researchers are also examining how immigration policy affects Minnesota’s professional workforce, particularly in Rochester’s large medical and research community. Hospitals and labs there rely heavily on international physicians, scientists and specialized healthcare workers. Allen said recent visa‑processing challenges under the current administration have made it more difficult for those professionals to obtain or renew the credentials needed to work in the U.S.
“When we talk about what’s been happening with different visas… that’s an important issue,” he said.
Allen added that about 40% of Minnesota’s undocumented population holds some form of temporary or “liminal” legal status, making them especially vulnerable to policy shifts.
(Source here.)
